In the Chinese market, the production process of MMA has developed to nearly six types, and these processes have all been industrialized. However, the competition situation of MMA varies greatly among different processes.

Currently, there are three mainstream production processes for MMA:

Acetone cyanohydrin method (ACH method): This is one of the earliest industrialized production processes, with mature technology and easy operation.

Ethylene carbonylation method: This is a relatively new production process with high reaction efficiency and product quality.

Isobutene oxidation method (C4 method): This is a production process based on the oxidative dehydrogenation of butene, with easily available raw materials and low costs.

On the basis of these three processes, there are three improved production processes as follows:

Improved ACH method: By optimizing reaction conditions and equipment, the yield and product quality were improved.

Ice acetic acid method: This process uses ice acetic acid as the raw material, and there is no discharge of three wastes during the production process, making it environmentally friendly.

BASF and Lucite processes, represented mainly by the name of the enterprise, have undergone unique technological improvements based on the characteristics of their respective enterprises, with high specificity and competitive advantages.

At present, these six production processes have all achieved the production of units with a scale of 10000 tons or more in China. However, the competition between different processes varies greatly due to factors such as their own characteristics and costs. In the future, with the advancement of technology and market development, the competitive landscape of these production processes may change.

At the same time, it is important to mention that in September 2022, the industrial demonstration unit of the 10000 ton coal based methanol acetic acid to methyl methacrylate (MMA) project independently developed by the Institute of Process Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was successfully started and operated stably, and the products were up to standard. This device is the world’s first coal based methanol acetic acid to MMA industrial demonstration device, achieving the transformation of domestic methyl methacrylate production from relying solely on petroleum raw materials to using coal based raw materials.

Due to the transformation of the competitive landscape, the supply and demand environment of MMA products has changed, and the price trend shows narrow fluctuations. In the past two years, the highest market price of MMA in China has reached 14014 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is about 10000 yuan/ton. As of August 2023, the MMA market price has dropped to 11500 yuan/ton. The main representative product downstream is PMMA, which has shown weak fluctuations in market prices over the past two years, with a maximum price of 17560 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 14625 yuan/ton. As of August 2023, the mainstream price of Chinese PMMA market fluctuated at 14600 yuan/ton. It should be noted that due to the fact that domestic PMMA products are mainly of mid to low-end brands, the price level of the products is lower than that of the imported market.

1.Without considering the acetic acid MMA unit, the ethylene MMA production process has had the strongest competitiveness in the past two years.

In the past two years, the ethylene based MMA production process has the strongest competitiveness in the Chinese market. According to statistics, the production cost of ethylene based MMA is the lowest and its competitiveness is the strongest. In 2020, the theoretical cost of ethylene based MMA was 5530 yuan per ton, while by January July 2023, the average cost was only 6088 yuan per ton. In contrast, the BASF method has the highest production cost, with an MMA cost of 10765 yuan per ton in 2020 and an average cost of 11081 yuan per ton from January to August 2023.

When evaluating the competitiveness of different production processes, we need to pay attention to the differences in the unit consumption of raw materials for different processes. For example, the raw material consumption of the ethylene method is 0.35 ethylene, 0.84 methanol, and 0.38 synthesis gas, while the BASF method is essentially an ethylene method, but its ethylene consumption is 0.429, methanol consumption is 0.387, and synthesis gas consumption is 662 cubic meters. These differences affect the production costs and competitiveness of different processes.

Based on cost estimates over the past few years, the ranking of MMA competitiveness for different processes is: ethylene method>C4 method>improved ACH method>ACH method>Lucite method>BASF method. This ranking is mainly influenced by the differences in public engineering among different processes.

In the future, with the advancement of technology and market development, the competitive landscape of different processes may change. Especially without considering the acetic acid MMA device, ethylene MMA is expected to continue to maintain its competitive advantage.

2.Acetic acid method MMA is expected to become the most competitive production method

The Institute of Process Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has successfully developed the world’s first coal based methanol acetic acid MMA industrial demonstration plant. The plant takes methanol and acetic acid as raw materials, and through the processes of aldol condensation, hydrogenation, etc., realizes the long-term stable production of MMA products. This process has obvious progressiveness, not only the process is short, but also the raw materials come from coal, which has obvious cost advantage. In addition, Xinjiang Zhongyou Puhui Technology Co., Ltd. is planning a large-scale industrial installation of 110000 tons/year, which will further promote the upgrading and development of China’s MMA industry. Compared with traditional petroleum based MMA production processes, the acetic acid based MMA process is more environmentally friendly and economically advantageous, and is expected to become an important development direction for the future MMA industry.

3.There are significant differences in the cost impact weights of different processes

There are significant differences in the cost impact weights of different MMA production processes, and the impact weights of different factors on costs vary depending on the process technology.

For ACH MMA, the price changes of acetone, methanol, and acrylonitrile have a significant impact on its cost. Among them, the price changes of acetone have the greatest impact on costs, reaching 26%, while the price changes of methanol and acrylonitrile affect 57% and 18% of costs, respectively. In contrast, the cost of methanol accounts for only about 7%. Therefore, in the study of the value chain of ACH MMA, more attention needs to be paid to the cost changes of acetone.

For C4 method MMA, high-purity isobutylene is the largest variable cost, accounting for approximately 58% of MMA cost. Methanol accounts for approximately 6% of the MMA cost. The price fluctuations of isobutene have a significant impact on the cost of C4 method MMA.

For ethylene based MMA, the unit consumption of ethylene accounts for over 85% of the MMA cost of this process, which is the main cost impact. However, it should be noted that most of the ethylene is produced as a self produced supporting equipment, and internal settlement is mostly based on cost price settlement. Therefore, the theoretical competitiveness level of ethylene may not be as high as the actual competitiveness level.

In summary, there are significant differences in the impact weights of different factors on costs in different MMA production processes, and analysis needs to be conducted based on specific process technologies.

 4.Which MMA production process will have the lowest cost in the future?

Under the current technological status, the competitiveness level of MMA in different processes in the future will be significantly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices. The raw materials used in several main MMA production processes include MTBE, methanol, acetone, sulfuric acid, and ethylene. These products can be purchased or supplied internally, while synthetic gas, catalysts and auxiliary materials, hydrocyanic acid, crude hydrogen, etc. are defaulted to be self supplied and the price remains unchanged.

Among them, the price of MTBE mainly follows the trend fluctuations of the refined oil market, and the refined oil price is closely related to the price of crude oil. On the premise of a bullish outlook for future oil prices, MTBE prices are also expected to show an upward trend, and the expected upward trend is stronger than crude oil. The price of methanol in the market fluctuates with the trend of coal prices, and the future supply is expected to continue to increase significantly. However, the development of the industrial chain model will lead to an increase in downstream self use rates, and the price of commodity methanol in the market is expected to continue to rise.

The supply and demand environment in the acetone market is deteriorating, and the construction of new projects using the ACH method is hindered, and long-term price fluctuations may be relatively weak. Ethylene is mostly supplied internally and has strong price competitiveness.

Therefore, based on the current technological situation and the fluctuation trend of raw material prices, there is still some uncertainty about which MMA production process will have the lowest cost in the future. However, it can be foreseen that in the context of future oil and coal price increases, the prices of raw materials such as methanol and MTBE are also expected to rise, which may have a significant impact on the competitiveness level of MMA in different processes. In order to maintain competitiveness, manufacturers may need to seek more economical and efficient raw material supply channels, while strengthening the optimization and innovation of production processes to reduce production costs and improve product quality.

Summary

The competitiveness ranking of different MMA processes in China in the future is expected to continue to be strong for the ethylene process, followed by the ACH process supporting the acrylonitrile unit, and then the C4 process. However, it should be noted that in the future, enterprises will develop in an industrial chain model, which will be the most competitive mode of operation through low-cost by-products and downstream supporting PMMA or other chemical products.

The reason why the ethylene method is expected to remain strong is due to the strong availability of its raw material ethylene, which accounts for a very high proportion of MMA production costs. However, it should be pointed out that most ethylene is supplied internally, and its theoretical competitiveness level may not be as high as the actual competitiveness level.

The ACH method has strong competitiveness when paired with an acrylonitrile unit, mainly because high-purity isobutylene as the main raw material accounts for a large proportion of MMA costs, while the ACH method can produce high-purity isobutylene as a byproduct, thereby reducing costs.

The competitiveness of processes such as C4 method is relatively weak, mainly due to the significant price fluctuations of its raw materials isobutane and acrylonitrile, and the relatively low proportion of isobutane in MMA production costs.

Overall, the most competitive operating mode of the MMA industry chain in the future will be for enterprises to develop in an industrial chain model, through low-cost by-products and downstream supporting PMMA or other chemical products. This can not only reduce production costs and improve product competitiveness, but also better meet market demand.