The Acrylonitrile prices rose sharply during the Golden Nine and Silver Ten. As of October 25, the bulk price of acrylonitrile market was RMB 10,860/ton, up 22.02% from RMB 8,900/ton in early September.

Since September, some domestic acrylonitrile enterprises stopped . Load shedding operation, acrylonitrile industry construction fell, the overall industry load is between 6~7.50%, the supply side pressure eased earlier, acrylonitrile market support too much.

The improvement in the propylene market also added momentum to acrylonitrile. During the Golden Nine, the propylene market rose slightly and acrylonitrile support was strong. As of October 25, the domestic propylene price was RMB 7,426/mt, up 4.59% from RMB 7,100/mt in early September, with a high of RMB 7,790/mt during the period.

The recovery in downstream demand has contributed to the rise of acrylonitrile in this round. Acrylonitrile has 40% of the demand from the ABS industry, followed by 20% of the demand from the acrylic industry. It is understood that acrylonitrile downstream ABS starts at a high level during the Golden Nine and Silver Ten, acrylamide starts escalate, acrylamide . Nitrile rubber starts stable.
ABS in June and July, the industry concentrated on maintenance, low start-ups, after which the start-up rate gradually increased. From the end of August to late October, the start-up time was between 83.5% and 97.7% (excluding Liaoning Jinfa capacity). In the face of acrylonitrile, demand is strongly supported. ABS 2022 industry opened capacity growth cycle, since this year, China’s ABS cumulative new production capacity of 350,000 tons, the later ABS will usher in a wave of capacity concentration release period, it is expected that the later demand support for acrylonitrile will continue.

The end products are mainly sweaters . Blanket. Sweaters, carpets, etc . The peak season for blankets and other demand is concentrated in the cold winter. Since September, domestic acrylic acid plant Jilin Chemical Fiber acrylonitrile plant restarted normal operation, domestic acrylic acid works increased from 30% to more than 60%, acrylonitrile demand increased significantly.
Short-term acrylonitrile supply surface pressure is not much, and demand continues to support, the market is expected to continue to remain high. In the medium to long term, acrylonitrile after a year of concentrated expansion, although the current capacity is in excess, but its future main demand growth is ABS and polyacrylamide industry, ABS industry is in the energy expansion cycle, there are long-term benefits for acrylonitrile; in the long term, acrylonitrile prices may fluctuate, the industry will be able to maintain a profitable state.

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